Return of the Jeet (Stay on target... Part II)

As part of my daily routine, I read the New York Daily News. Yes, I live in Vegas, but reading the Daily News makes me feel like I'm back home.  Anyway, in reading an article abut Jeter, I came across this paragraph:

And in that respect, he does not talk about any milestones he can still achieve in this last season. He is already the only player besides Willie Mays to have at least 3,000 hits, 250 homers, 300 stolen bases and 1,200 RBI in his career, already the Yankees’ all-time leader in hits, stolen bases and games played. With 120 more hits, he will surpass Hall of Famers Paul Molitor, Carl Yastrzemski, Honus Wagner and Cap Anson into sixth place on the all-time list, and with 74 more runs scored he will surpass Tris Speaker, Lou Gehrig, Alex Rodriguez* and Stan Musial to take ninth on that list.


(Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/madden-derek-keeping-pundits-hustling-article-1.1704786#ixzz2udOlDgcP)

That got me thinking about an blog I wrote a few years ago, Stay on target... Almost there... I made some predictions about the end of Jeter's career. Let's see how close I am.  I predicted he will play till 2014. Jeter announced his retirement in 2014.  Although to be fair, his contract only lasted till 2014 so this was kind of a gimmie.  I predicted 3690 hits for 4th all time.  It looks like he will end up 6th.  Although I'm pretty sure he would've ended up 4th if it wasn't for his injury.

300HR Club.  He's currently at 256.  Doesn't look like he's going to make this one.

400 Stolen Bases.  He's currently at 348.  Doesn't look like he's going to make this one either.

10K At Bats. Yeah, he toppled this in grand fashion in 2012 when he got 683 ABs.  He is starting the season at 10,614.

2500 Games Played.  He passed this one up also in 2012.  2014 starts him at 2602.

He also added another ASG appearance in 2012 to bring him up to 13.  And you know he is going to the 2014 ASG so that will put his career at 14 ASGs.

I did say that he would have one more spectacular season in him.  Looks like 2012 was that year.  I wonder what could have been if not for his injury plagued 2013 season.

Like I've mentioned before, Jeet is a 1st year HoF inductee.  Tom Seaver holds the record for highest vote percentage into the HoF at 98.8%.  I really, really believe that Jeet has a chance at breaking this record also.  I guess we will revisit this in 2019, the first year he will be on the ballot.  I will tell you this, I plan to be there in 2020 when he makes his acceptance speech.

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Stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com

Stay on target... Almost there...

As of this writing, DJ (Derek Jeter for you uncultured ones) is two hits shy of joining Club 3K (3000 hits).  Think about that for a minute.... Done? Ok. Most people don't realize how exclusive of a club this is.  The other big hitters club, the 500 Home Run Club, isn't as exclusive as it used to be.  There are at least a half-dozen 'Roiders in there and, let's face it, the whole "Chicks dig the long ball" thing is so passé. 

Anyway...

Back to Club 3K, I found it interesting that some of the bigger names in the game are in the club. My all-time favorite player, Lou Gehrig, not in. The original HR King, Babe Ruth, not in. Junior? Nope. Mantle? Negative. Dave Winfield, Rickey "Run, Rickey, Run" Henderson? Well, yeah, but they didn't hit #3000 with the Yankees (Twins & Padres respectively).  The only blemish in the Club is Rafael Palmeiro.

So not only is going to join the Club, DJ isn't going to stop at 3K. I really think he is going to be one of the top 10 in hits (3315+).  He has a contract till at least 2014. That's another 3 full years.  According to Baseball-Reference, DJ has averaged 206 hits a year over his career.  Barring further injury and extended slumps, 160-175 hits this season is not out of the question.  That should put him at about 3170 at the end of this season.  Throw in one more spectacular season (he has one more in him) at 193 hits and two seasons of +/- average seasons at 171 and 157 hits, that would put him at... carry the one, divide by the square root of his shoe size... around 3690 hits for his career.   That is good enough for 4th on the All-Time list behind Rose, Cobb and Aaron. 

Yet, there are still people that will insist that he is not a HoFer.  Really?  Let's take a look at his other numbers.

If he keeps his career average going, he will also join the 300 Home Run Club. Yeah, I know, it doesn't have the same ring as the 500 Home Run Club.  However, take a look at the big picture.  Only 130 players have it 300 home runs.  Yeah, that sounds like a lot when you think there are 750 baseball players (25-man roster X 30 teams), about 17%. However, when you realize that it's not 750, but closer to 17,150 guys that have played baseball since the 1800s, that percentage drops waaaaay down to 0.75%.  All of a sudden, 300 home runs is kinda impressive.  Oh, and one other thing, DJ really isn't a home run hitter. Kinda makes that stat that much more impressive.

One of my favorite stats, simply because Jathniel gets to talk in the 3rd person like one of his favorite players (Rickey Henderson), is the stolen base.  One of the greatest strategies of the game, the stolen base can get a player from 1st to 3rd quick-fast, in a hurry, and totally disrupt the pitcher's concentration.  JD already has 330. He gets another 10 this year and average 20 the next three years and that will put him at 400 swipes.  That will put him at #70 on the all-time list. Good company considering 25 of those 70 are in the Hall.

Let's see what else is on the list... 400 away from 10,000 at bats (25 members of that club)... on track for 2500+ games played (that'll put him in the top 50)... 12x All-Star... 5x World Series Champ... 5x Gold Glove... All-Star MVP... World Series MVP...

Seriously, if those aren't 1st Year Induction stats, I don't know what is.

Just saying...

JV